- Sep 5, 2017
Without getting much into the biology of COVID-19 lemme dive into the stastics straight.
The official Coronavirus tally is merely the 'tip of the iceberg', according to a medical expert at the Chinese University of Hong Kong
Computer modeling of the coronavirus outbreak’s course in China, in the weeks before a travel shutdown was imposed on Jan. 23, suggest that 86% of the infections went undocumented.
Those undocumented infections were about half as contagious as the documented cases, but were the source of two-thirds of the documented cases, according to a study published online today by the journal Science.
The findings parallel other research into the role of what’s known as stealth or cryptic transmission in spreading the potentially deadly virus. They also underscore the importance of widespread testing, even if patients aren’t experiencing serious symptoms, particularly during the early phases of transmission.
“More active testing procedures would catch more cases,” Columbia University’s Jeffrey Shaman, a co-author of the study, told reporters today. “How that would be implemented is something that we can debate for quite some time. And obviously this all has to be done under the backdrop of the logistics and costs of implementing lots more tests.”
Shaman and his colleagues tracked reports of infections in China from Jan. 10 to 23, and from Jan. 24 to Feb. 8, and fed those reports along with data about population mobility into their computer model.
When the researchers started putting their data together, they suspected the model would show that reported cases were just “the tip of the iceberg” for the spread of infection, Shaman said. That suspicion was based on past research involving more benign coronaviruses — such as those that cause the common cold. Such research suggested that most infections caused symptoms so mild that the people who had the virus didn’t bother to report them.
Their suspicion turned out to be correct. “It’s the undocumented infections which are driving the spread of the outbreak,” Shaman said.
Currently, about 180,000 coronavirus cases have been documented worldwide. Based on that statistic and the study’s findings, the actual number of infections could be well more than a million.
The good news is that increased testing, in addition to limits on travel and social contact, can significantly change the equation. The model shows that during the two weeks after China imposed its restriction, 60% of infections were documented.
Another factor may be how transmissible the virus is before the onset of symptoms.
A SIMILAR SITUATION IN RUSSIA:
The Russian government has taken serious measures to combat COVID-19, which to date has killed more than 7,000 people worldwide. The Kremlin has closed most entry points along the country’s 2,600 mile border with China, ordered people returning from high-risk areas to self-quarantine banned many flights and public gatherings, and is rushing to build a new $135 million hospital on the outskirts of Moscow.
But the numbers of confirmed coronavirus cases – 147 as of March 18, with zero fatalities, in a country of 140 million – strike many Russians as outlandishly small and suggest that public health information is being hijacked by political considerations.
Krapiva cited the example of a March 12 tweet by the mayor of Moscow, which claimed that the Department of Health was in a heightened state of preparedness for the treatment of the condition. Krapiva added, “People took the use of the word ‘pneumonia’ as a sign that the authorities are hiding something.”
Valery Solovei, a well-known Russian history professor and political commentator, has accused authorities of mismanaging the crisis and issuing false statistics. In an interview on a Moscow radio station on March 16, he said that doctors were attributing COVID-19 deaths to pneumonia. “They use the diagnosis of a side effect as the cause of death,” he alleged.
Some Russian doctors have echoed Solovei’s accusations. While no direct evidence has surfaced connecting Kremlin directives to underreported cases of coronavirus, five Russian virologists contacted by Coda Story described overwhelmed respiratory wards in hospitals widely believed to be designated to treat COVID-19 patients, shortages of protective gear and severe delays in testing for infection. All five doctors declined to go on the record, for fear of retribution.
Doctors and nurses spoken to by Coda Story detailed chaotic conditions in Russian hospitals. “You can’t imagine what is happening,” said one staff member at Mukhin State Hospital, on the eastern edge of Moscow, which has witnessed a surge in pneumonia patients. ”We don’t even have gloves sometimes, let alone face masks.”
Russia is not the only place where a low number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 has drawn widespread suspicion of underreporting. Other nations, including Iran, Italy and China have all been accused of not releasing accurate figures. Many other countries are also struggling to provide medical staff with sufficient protective clothing and equipment, but in Russia’s case, it appears that the authorities are in denial that any of these vital measures are even necessary.
Compared to SARS in 2003, coronavirus has a lower fatality rate at 2.1%. SARS was four times more deadly than coronavirus.
SARS and coronavirus are often compared by researchers because SARS was also caused by the mutation of virus in a wet market. SARS is said to have come from civet cats, while the root of coronavirus was found in bats and snakes.
Coronavirus has a relatively low fatality rate but it spreads extremely fast through to human to human transmission.
A study by three researchers at the Hong Kong University found that the coronavirus outbreak can double every 6.4 days.
NOW COMING TO THE CASE OF INDIA LEMME SHOW U THE TIMELINE OF EVENTS
- On 30 January, the country's first case was confirmed in a student who had returned from Wuhan University to Kerala
- On 2 February, second case was confirmed in Kerala; the individual travelled regularly between India and China.
- On 3 February, the third positive case was reported in Kasaragod, Kerala. The patient had travelled from Wuhan. All three have since recovered from the infection.
- On 2 March, the Union Health Ministry reported two more confirmed cases: a 45-year-old man in Delhi who had travelled back from Italy and a 24-year-old engineer in Hyderabad who had travel history with the United Arab Emirates. In addition, an Italian citizen in Jaipur, who was earlier tested negative, was tested positive for coronavirus, totalling six confirmed cases in the country. 88 people who were in contact with the Hyderabad individual, including fellow bus passengers from Bangalore, were tracked down by the government and placed under watch. Officials of the Government of Telangana stated that 36 people who had been in contact with the Hyderabad engineer had developed coronavirus symptoms. An employee of Intel in Bangalore who had come in contact with him was quarantined. Fifteen crew members of the Air India flight, which had carried the Delhi man from Vienna, were placed in isolation for 14 days, while six of his family members in Agra were quarantined. Staff of a restaurant in Delhi where he had dined on 28 February were asked to self-quarantine for two weeks, and two schools in Noida whose students had attended a birthday party of his child were closed for a week.
- On 3 March, the wife of the Italian tourist in Jaipur also tested positive, and her samples were sent to Pune for confirmation. A total of 24 people (21 Italians and 3 Indians) residing in a South Delhi hotel were shifted to an ITBP camp for testing.
- On 4 March, 15 of them (14 Italians and 1 Indian), along with the Jaipur Italian tourist's wife, tested positive for coronavirus, according to an announcement by the All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi; the 14 Italians were quarantined at Medanta in Gurgaon. The six family members of the Delhi case in Agra were confirmed to be infected with the virus. A Paytm Gurgaon employee from Delhi, who had returned from a vacation in Italy, tested positive, taking the number of cases to 29. 459 passengers have been screened in Kochi who were on board the Italian luxury cruise ship 'Costa Victoria'.
- On 5 March, a middle-aged man in Ghaziabad who had travel history with Iran tested positive. More than 1,200 people, who came from other countries, were quarantined in Kolkata.
- On 6 March, a resident of West Delhi, who had travelled to Malaysia and Thailand, was diagnosed with the virus.
- On 7 March, a man in Jammu, who had travelled to Iran and South Korea, and two people from Hoshiarpur with travel history to Italy were tested positive in preliminary tests, but a confirmation from Pune was awaited. The Union Health Ministry announced three confirmed cases on 7 March—two people from Ladakh who had visited Iran, and a person in Tamil Nadu who had been to Oman. The lone patient of COVID-19 in Tamil Nadu later tested negative on 10 March with that no fresh cases remained in the state. An American tourist who was tested positive in Bhutan, caused alert in Assam after he was found to have visited several places in the state before leaving the country.
- On 8 March, five people of the same family in Pathanamthitta, Kerala, were tested positive for the virus. Three of them had been to Italy while other two came in direct contact with those infected.
- On 9 March, a three-year-old, who returned from Italy two days before, was tested positive in Ernakulam; the child's parents were also quarantined as a precaution. A 63-year-old woman in Jammu and Kashmir who had been to Iran was confirmed to be infected with the virus. A person in Agra, who had come in contact with an infected person, and a man in Delhi were diagnosed with the virus. Later, one of the two Hoshiarpur, Punjab suspected cases tested positive, as did a techie in Bangalore who had travel history to the United States. Maharashtra reported its first two cases later in the day after a couple in Pune, with travel history to Dubai, tested positive.
- On 10 March, a press release from the Indian Council of Medical Research confirmed that three more people in Karnataka, including wife and child of the infected Bangalore techie, were diagnosed with the virus. The Chief Minister of Kerala Pinarayi Vijayan reported six fresh cases in Pathanamthitta, all of whom were linked to the five previously confirmed cases from the town. Three more people in Pune, who had come in contact with the infected couple from the city, tested positive. Later, both parents of the infected three-year-old child in Ernakulam were also tested positive.
- On 11 March, an 85-year-old man in Jaipur tested positive who had travel history to Dubai. Two people tested positive in Mumbai, who were close to previously reported Pune patients. Maharashtra Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray confirmed while addressing a press conference that total 10 people have tested positive in the state which included 8 from Pune and 2 from Mumbai. Later, a 45-year-old man who returned from US tested positive in Nagpur, taking the toll to 11 in Maharashtra.
- On 12 March, India registered its first death due to COVID-19, a 76-year-old man from Kalaburgi, Karnataka who had travel history to Saudi Arabia died on 10 March, and later his sample tested positive. A tourist guide in Noida, Uttar Pradesh who had came in contact with a group of Italian tourists, tested positive. Later, a Canadian woman tested positive in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh. Her husband, who had travelled with her was also put in isolation. A 69-year-old woman in West Delhi who tested positive and died later, transmitted it from her 46-year-old son who had travel history to Japan, Italy and Geneva, Switzerland. Andhra Pradesh reported its first case, a man returned from Italy tested positive in Nellore. Five people with whom he came in contact were quarantined.
- On 13 March, the second death of the country was registered, as a 69-year-old woman from Delhi who tested positive earlier day died. An employee of Google in Bangalore, who had returned from a trip to Greece, tested positive; his colleagues were quarantined. Later, two more people in Kerala who had returned from Dubai and Qatar tested positive taking the total number of COVID-19 cases in the state to 16. In Maharashtra, 1 more person in Pune and 2 more in Nagpur tested positive taking total to 17 in the state. An employee of a private firm in Noida tested positive who had travelled to Italy and than Switzerland. An Indian national evacuated from Italy and quarantined at an Army facility near Gurugram tested positive. Seven patients – 5 from Uttar Pradesh, and one each from Rajasthan and Delhi survived the disease and got discharged from various hospitals.
- On 14 March, In Maharashtra two people in Yavatmal with travel history to Dubai, one each in Thane, Ahmednagar, Mumbai, Kalyan, Kamothe and Vashi, and five in Pimpri-Chinchwad tested positive. A second case of coronavirus was detected in Hyderabad in a person with a travel history to Italy A 24-year-old man in Jaipur who had travel history to Spain tested positive.
- On 15 March, A 59-year-old woman from Aurangabad with a travel history to Russia tested positive. Uttar Pradesh reported its 12th case in Lucknow. A UK national and a doctor who returned from abroad tested positive in Kerala. Telangana reported its third case in a person who had travelled to the Netherlands. A trainee officer at Forest Research Institute who had returned from a study tour to Spain, Finland and Russia became the first person to be tested positive in Uttarakhand. The daughter of the first victim of the virus in the country tested positive in Kalaburagi, Karnataka. The Italian couple and the Dubai-returned 85-year old Jaipur native in Rajasthan recovered from the virus. A 31-year-old man from Pune who recently travelled to Dubai and Japan tested positive later in the day.
- On 16 March, Odisha reported its first case when a 31-year-old man from Bhubaneswar with travel history to Italy tested positive. Maharashtra reported four more cases - three in Mumbai and one in Navi Mumbai. A woman who was part of a nine-member group that returned from Dubai on 1 March tested positive in Yavatmal in Maharashtra. Kerala reported three more cases — two in Malappuram and one in Kasaragod. A 32-year-old man from Karnataka, who had returned in the same flight from Heathrow, London as the Mindtree employee, tested positive. A 34-year-old soldier of the Indian Army, whose father had contracted the virus on March 6, tested positive in Leh.
- On 17 March, a 64-year-old man from Mumbai became the third victim of the virus in the country.Two people who returned from France tested positive in Noida. Three more cases were reported in Ladakh — two from Leh and one from Kargil district. A 3-year-old girl and both her parents tested positive in Mumbai. In Puducherry, a 68-year-old woman who travelled to the UAE was the first reported case in the Union Territory. In Kalaburagi, Karnataka, a 63-year-old doctor, who treated the first victim of the virus in the country, tested positive. Two inmates at the ITBP quarantine facility in New Delhi, who had a travel history to Italy, tested positive.West Bengal reported its first case in a person who had returned from England.
- On 18 March, a woman in her late 20s, who had a travel history to France and the Netherlands, tested positive in Pune. Telengana reported its sixth case in a person who had a travel history to the UK. A man from Gautam Buddha Nagar district in Noida who had returned from Indonesia tested positive. Karnataka reported two more cases, a 56-year-old man who returned from the United States and a 26-year-old woman who returned from Spain. Tamil Nadu's second case was reported in a person who travelled by train from Delhi to Chennai. Rajasthan reported three more cases in a couple and their 2-year-old daughter from Jhunjhunu, they had returned from Italy.
- On 19 March, a 72-year-old man in Punjab who had returned from Germany via Italy became the fourth victim of the virus in the country. A 23-year-old woman in Chandigarh who had a travel history to the UK tested positive. Two women from Mumbai - a 22-year-old who had returned from the UK and a 49-year-old resident of Ulhasnagar who had returned from Dubai tested positive.Chhattisgarh reported its first case in a 23-year-old woman from Raipur who had travelled to London, UK. Two more people tested positive in Uttar Pradesh - one from Lucknow and the other from Lakhimpur Kheri district. A person from Kodagu district in Karnataka tested positive. A 21-year-old student who had returned from Ireland tested positive in Tamil Nadu. An HCL employee in Noida, Uttar Pradesh who had returned from international travel tested positive.
- On 20 March, a 69-year-old Italian man in Rajasthan become fifth victim of the virus in the country.Bollywood singer Kanika Kapoor has been found corona infected. She came to Lucknow from London on March 15. Gujarat reported its first two cases, a woman in Surat who returned from New York and a man in Rajkot who returned from Mecca tested positive.Telengana reported ten new cases, seven Indonesians , a 22-year-old man who retuned from Scotland,and two person who returned from London tested positve. Four more people tested positive in Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh - three related to a previously-infected doctor and one with a travel history to Gulf. Third case reported in Punjab's Mohali where a 68 year old women who returned from United Kingdom tested positive.
- WHAT DO WE INFER!?
- 4m d above graph we can easily infer that All cases and casualties are either foreign returns or foreign nationals.All cases are confirmed using contact tracing and so far 14,59,993 individuals r screened so far and being despite the fact that SCREENING IN AIRPORTS FROM EARLY FEB CASES STILL CONTINUED 2 RISE ND STILL IZ INCREASING.SO WHAT WENT WRONG?
- Screening doesnt mean they actually are tested 4 COVID-19 virus.instead they r chkd using thermal regulators if they ve a high temp.nd i heard sum ppl r easily escaping thiz screening procedure by either taking IBUPROFEN OR PARACETOMOL,which lowers body temperature.
- THE CORE OF THE PROBLEM:
As of 14 March, the National Institute of Virology (NIV) has tested around 5,900 samples from individuals across the country. The number of tests per million in the country is 5 as of 14 March. In comparison, it is 26 in US, 76 in Japan, 1,005 in Italy and 4,099 in South Korea.
Testing for community transmission began on 15 March. 65 laboratories of the Department of Health Research and the Indian Council of Medical Research (DHR-ICMR) have started testing random samples of people who exhibit flu-like symptoms and samples from patients without any travel history or contact with infected persons. As of March 18, no evidence of community transmission was found after results of 500 random samples tested negative.
ICMR had denied ne cases of community transmision as of now,but i hardly believe the country is expected to hit the worst in the upcoming weeks.
As of now all i can advise as a physician is self quarantine urself atleast 4 d next upcoming 2 weeks especially those who had been in contact with a peron who had a travel history to foreign countries 4d past 15 days since the incubation period ie the time from entry of virus into a person to his first symptom ie fever cough runny nose diarhoea difficulty in breathing in that order may vary 4m 5 days to 15 days ie a person with covid-19 may remain asymptomatic even until 15 days but still he may be spreading the virus.STAY SAFE.STAY ALONE.FIGHT TOGETHER.
DISCLAIMER:THE ABOVE VIEWS ARE PURELY MY PERSONAL OPINION AS A PHYSICIAN AND DOES NOT REFLECT THE CURRENT SITUATION OF ONGOING COVID-19 BATTLE NEITHER NOT TO UNDERMINE THE EFFORTS PUT BY INDIAN GOVT TO COMBAT THE VIRUS